4/5/19 MLB BREAKDOWN
MIN/PHI- The weather looks to be an issue here. Kevin Roth has it at an orange/red, meaning a ppd looks likely. I am not going to spend too much time on this one. Pitchers too risky if it does manage to play with the weather and only bats I am interested in are the top 5 on the Phillies as a stack.
CIN/PIT- Both offenses have a total of under 4 runs. Musgrove held RHH to a .229 BA and .343 SLG, but LHH had a .272 BA and .446 SLG. I would look at the Red’s lefties namely Winker and Votto. The Reds have a bunch of RHH in the projected lineup so I am not very high on them today. Gray has bad for the Yanks last season and got hit hard his first start. Main issue is the Pirates offense without Dickerson and Polanco is void of talent except for Frazier and Marte. Hard to stack the Pirates team but Marte and Frazier look good on PIT.
TOR/CLE- I have a lot of interest in both pitchers in this game. Favorite is Shane Bieber who has great strikeout stuff and is facing a team who sucks against RHP and strikes out a bunch. Bieber is my top pitcher of the day. Thornton is the cheapest pitcher on DK today and I think that is a mistake. The CLE offense is pretty ugly and Jose Ramirez might miss this game. If Thornton manages to drop another 20+dk points like he did in his first start, he will be one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate.
BOS/ARI- This is looking like one of the best hitting environments of the night if the roof is indeed open. Both pitchers are solid though so it is hard to prioritize either offense. A Betts, Benintendi, Devers, and Martinez stack looks good if you pay down at pitching. I like the D-backs as a mini-stack with Escobar, Peralta, Jones and Walker.
MIA/ATL- I think the Marlins are a sneaky stack on the night. Its projected lineup has great numbers against Gausman and they get a big time park upgrade. Granderson, Anderson, Walker, Castro, and Alfaro is the 5 man stack I would go with. Alfaro is 4/6 with a HR against Gausman, Castro is hitting over .300 with a HR in 35 ABs, Granderson is 3/6 with 2 HRs. I expect Pablo Lopez to take a major step forward this season. The Braves offense should be very popular today. Donaldson, Freeman, Acuna, Markakis, and Albies all look great as a stack and you could run it back with the Marlins stack.
CHC/MIL The Brewers are one of my top stacks of the evening. Quintana struggles with command at times and give up a lot of power. All of the righties on the Brewers are in play along with Yelich. Yelich, Braun, Aguilar, and Cain are my 4 favorite. I do not have much interest in the Cubs. Woodruff is a solid pitcher and the Brewers have a shutdown bullpen although the Cubs took the bullpen deep twice in the ninth yesterday.
OAK/HOU- Montas has been terrible against lefties and decent against righties. For his career, LHH are hitting .315 with a .598 SLG and RHH are only hitting .248 with a .356 SLG. The Astros are loaded with RHH so I will not be stacking them. Only guys I like are Brantley and Redick on HOU. On OAK, I like Davis, Piscotty and Grossman in that order.
TEX/LAA I was disappointed in myself for writing that the Rangers would be very sneaky and the lefties would make for a great gpp stack against Harvey yesterday and not going their way in my lineup. I won’t make that same mistake today against Pena who like Harvey struggles against LHH and the Rangers are loaded with them. All lefties are in play and I would throw in Andrus who is still pretty cheap and has been crushing. On the Angels, the only 2 guys I like are Trout and Calhoun.
Favorites at each position (NO ORDER)
PITCHER: Shane Bieber, Joe Musgrove, Trent Thorton, Brandon Woodruff, Collin McHugh
1B- Joey Votto, Neil Walker, Freddie Freeman, Jesus Aguilar, Ronald Guzman
2B- Starlin Castro, Adam Frazier, Rougned Odor, Ozzie Albies, Hernan Perez,
3B- Josh Donaldson, Brain Anderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rafael Devers, Edardo Escobar
SS- Elvis Andrus, Xander Bogaerts, JT Riddle, Hernan Perez, Javier Baez
OF- Shin-shoo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Khris Davis, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, David Peralta, Adam Jones
Favorite 5 Stacks: Brewers, Rangers, Marlins, Braves, Diamondbacks